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The goal for sports punters is to earn a profit whilst enjoying our favourite sport. The sad truth is the fact that for the majority of gamblers, this really is an elusive dream. However by developing and carefully following a stratagem anyone can make this dream a reality.
You can find two things to consider to profit from sports gambling:
Bet Selection – Staking Plan – Bet Selection
The first, Bet Selection, is obvious – we need to back winners at least several of the time. Let’s consider Horse Racing, anecdotally there are lots of professional punters whom earn an appropriate living from picking horses, though the key word here is professional. Research and analysis of each horse within the 59 racecourses across the UK takes a sizeable amount of time and experience. If you want to be successful then it is a full-time job! For almost all us what this means is we have to use the advice of experts to do some of the legwork for us.
Horse racing has no end of self-proclaimed “experts” via the internet charging up to Ł100 per 30 days. When selecting a horse racing tipster the most significant factor we need to think about is long-term results.
The web is awash with tipsters who have had one good month but then go on to post a loss for the next six – but you will only see this one month on their own home page! Never follow any tips without first checking the tipster’s full result history. Choose a tipster who publishes all their horse racing tips history, ideally where the results of the tips are published the next day along with a complete history of all their tips.
Take a look-at a Tipster Proofing site for example Racing-Index who grades the results for a range of tipsters. Consider which tipster provides you with gave for money and fits with your own betting profile – can you really place the 100s of tips each month some tipsters require?
Following tipsters alone is just not likely to earn us riches – the best tipsters are locked out for new members or charge such high rates that any profits are lost immediately. The solution is to develop our own system using tips from expert sources combined with our own research. This is the strategy successfully utilized in greyhound racing by followers of the site. Like with many things; the greater you put into your system the better you will get out.
Once we have a betting strategy in place it’s time to look-at a staking plan. The simplest is Fixed or Level Stakes where we simply bet the same amount, for example 2% of our initial betting bank, each time on our selected horse, however we would want to increase our wagers as our betting bank grows. This leads to Percentage Staking where a percentage of the current betting bank is wagered each time. This implies since we win our stakes are larger and conversely the stakes shrink in the event the betting bank decreases.
Conversely, intuitively we know these staking plans to be overly naive as we will be putting the same amount of cash on a horse with low odds compared to a horse with high odds. Even as we are looking to maximise our profits we should be putting a bigger stake on a low odds bet as the return will be less.
To seek out the optimal staking plan we can take a correspondence course in statistics and dedicate several years into research. Fortunately we live in age where this research is at our fingertips. From probability theory we have the Kelly Strategy where the optimal portion of our betting bank is calculated from the odds of the bet and our very own estimate of the probability of the horse winning.
Using an learn online football casino (learn more about Esapa) Kelly Strategy Calculator just feed within the values to get the percentage of the betting bank to put on each horse. Now the Kelly Strategy can give us some scary percentage stakes if we have an initial run of high odds horses so we could adapt it to a Half Kelly Staking Plan where we wager half the percentage advised through the Kelly Strategy. This would end in a slower accumulation of gambling profits but a less hair-raising ride.
