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Smart sports betting, and football betting specifically, is in line with the skills of the teams involved as opposed to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the flip side, sports betting – as well as poker – is just not according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. Within the long haul, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that particular results are “due” based upon previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this implies tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in all reality, the chances that the next coin toss will end in tails is exactly the exact same in spite of the number of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” based upon probabilities. There isn’t any sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point of these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to say that random chance just isn’t involved, of course it is. Any team might make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nevertheless Read the Full Article smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is significantly more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor over the long term. Anyone can get lucky on occasion, but if one learns to make intelligent bets depending on the skills of the teams involved, one is a lot more likely to win significant quantities of money over the long haul.
